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	<title>Speaking of Science &#187; Gratuitous Quantification</title>
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		<title>Exactly How Many?</title>
		<link>http://scienticity.net/sos/2005/01/exactly-how-many/</link>
		<comments>http://scienticity.net/sos/2005/01/exactly-how-many/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 31 Jan 2005 21:42:05 +0000</pubDate>
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		<category><![CDATA[Gratuitous Quantification]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://scienticity.net/sos/?p=41</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[From The Los Angeles Times story U.S. to Overhaul Training of Iraqi Forces, reporting on the confirmation hearings of Condi Rice as Secretary of State, comes this extraordinary statement: The Pentagon wants to train about 135,000 police officers, 62,000 national guardsmen, 24,000 army troops and others for a security force totaling 271,041. What is extraordinary [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>From <i>The Los Angeles Times</i> story <a href=" http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-fg-training20jan20,1,158973.story?coll=la-headlines-world&#038;ctrack=1&#038;cset=true">U.S. to Overhaul Training of Iraqi Forces</a>, reporting on the confirmation hearings of Condi Rice as Secretary of State,  comes this extraordinary statement:</p>
<blockquote><p>
 The Pentagon wants to train about 135,000 police officers, 62,000 national guardsmen, 24,000 army troops and others for a security force totaling 271,041.
</p></blockquote>
<p>What is extraordinary is this number: 271,041. Not, mind you, &#8220;271,042&#8243; or &#8220;271,043&#8243; or even &#8220;about 270,00&#8243;, but exactly &#8220;271,041&#8243;. [N.B. This statement originated with The Pentagon, and not with the LA Times.]<br />
This is a beautiful example of gratuitous quantification and misguided precision. In this context, specifying &#8220;&#8230;and forty-one&#8221; is simply absurd: there is no reason to think that the number could possibly be known to that precision, and suggesting otherwise is misleading , inaccurate, and <i>wrong</i>, as well as being an obvious display of innumeracy that should <i>never</i> appear in Congressional testimony or come out of the Pentagon.<br />
All this would be true, even if the first part of the statement didn&#8217;t say </p>
<blockquote><p>
The Pentagon wants to train about 135,000 &#8230;.
</p></blockquote>
<p>thus limiting, by saying &#8220;about&#8221;,  the expected precision of the numbers right up front.</p>
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